Ethereum [ETH]: Decoding next steps with 600k option contracts expiring soon

This post was originally published here

“It’s not about the money- It’s about the game.” The composite character, Gordon Gekko from the 1987 film ‘Wall Street’ puts it well. And, perhaps, ETH option writers must be overjoyed to see that the game this time has been won by ETH traders who took a bearish stance in the past. In particular, the traders who got the momentum, direction, and timing right.

The crypto market is in complete mayhem with ETH trading at $1,811 press time price. Notably, it’s down by 11.19% in the past seven days. Now, you may ask what’s in it for the investors.

Well, a total of 582.2k outstanding options contracts are set to expire on 27 May. The comparatively high number of open interest for options on 27 May states that new money can be expected to flow into the marketplace. Thus, hinting that the current trend might continue for a little longer.

The zero-sum game couldn’t be more glorified as the put options outweighed the call options on the 27 May expiry. It clearly shows that a section of the market participants sensed the bearish aroma and took their positions accordingly.

A deep dive

On closer observation, one can find that the 27 May has the second-highest contract expiration after the 24 June 2022 expiration of 766.0k contracts. As it were, it implies that considerable volatility in ETH’s spot prices can not be ruled out.

Source: skew

Now, the second thing to consider is the strike price. As of 26 May, till the strike price of $1,700, call options contracts can’t be seen. However, it appears that the $1,800 mark gives traders some hope even though the number of call options contracts rest way below the 25,000 mark.

Interestingly, at the strike price of $2,100, call options starkly outweigh the put options. Peradventure, signaling that traders at that price point are too exhausted to take a pessimistic stance.

Source: skew

Furthermore, the implied volatility on 26 May stood near the historical volatility. Thus, hinting at the fact that ETH may be range-bound for a few days before being subjected to the volatility heat. The reading of the Relative Volatility Index (RVI) on the price chart confirms that narrative.

Source: skew

For ETH derivative traders, it is also important to look at the ETH options volumes which seem to be declining after 11 May. This could possibly mean that investors are not very optimistic about the king altcoin’s performance in recent days. Most of them are waiting for a bull run ahead to take their respective positions.

Source: skew

Furthermore, at the time of this analysis, the MVRV ratio (30D) stood at -15.59%. Thus, indicating that 43% of ETH holders are currently in the loss. And, the market sentiment for the token is majorly bearish.

Source: Santiment

Considering the above-mentioned metrics, it can be said, ETH traders have a lot of future money-making options with the expiration of 582.2K contracts on 27 May.

Leave a Comment